The J.P. Morgan View: Two-Tailed Risk: Hyperscalers Capex & Monetization Scrutiny vs. Middle East Oil Risk

Research evidence excerpt

The J.P. Morgan View: Two-Tailed Risk: Hyperscalers Capex & Monetization Scrutiny vs. Middle East Oil Risk

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

24 July 2026

The J.P. Morgan View

Two-Tailed Risk: Hyperscalers Capex & Monetization

Scrutiny vs. Middle East Oil Risk

Cross Asset Strategy

Fabio Bassi AC

(44-20) 7134-1989

fabio.bassi@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• Geopolitics are back in the price: the halting of negotiations between the US Dubravko(1-212) 622-3601Lakos-Bujas

and Iran along with the resumption of airstrikes have brought geopolitical dubravko.lakos-bujas@jpmorgan.com

concerns back across markets, with Brent jumping to ~$100s vs. low $70s J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

of late June/early July. Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou

• A reopening of the Strait via renewed diplomacy (our baseline) should limit (44-20) 7134-7815

further upside in oil. A widening on the Red Sea front could drive a retest nikolaos.panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com

of early-conflict oil peaks on prolonged supply-disruption fears.

Mika Inkinen

• Higher energy prices reduce upside risk to the growth outlook and will keep (44-20) 7742 6565

central banks vigilant on inflation, especially after the recent energy-driven mika.j.inkinen@jpmorgan.com

downside surprises. This week, the ECB confirmed a data-dependent J.P. Morgan Securities plc

approach, validating a second hike in September. Energy prices (oil and Jainik Mody, CFA

natural gas) skew risks toward further hikes. (44-20) 3493-0443

jainik.mody@jpmorgan.com

• We expect hikes from the BoJ (October) and BoE (November), but forecast J.P. Morgan Securities plc

both policy rates on hold next week. We anticipate the Fed will reiterate a Lara Bes

hawkish stance with limited new guidance; risks remain skewed to earlier (44-20) 3493-0267