US: The return of Tariff Man

Research evidence excerpt

US: The return of Tariff Man

Michael S Hanson (1-212) 622-8603 North America Economic Research J P M O R G A Nmichael.s.hanson@jpmchase.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 24 July 2026

US: The return of Tariff Man on specific sectors for national security, including aircraft,

semiconductors, and critical minerals, have been floated as

• New section 301 tariffs replace the expiring section 122 well. One modest offset: generic drug manufacturers who do

levy; effective tariff rate ticks lower for now not move their production to the US were facing a planned

100% tariff later this year, now delayed to mid-2028.

• Additional proposed tariffs could push it higher still,

approaching the nearly 15% under IEEPA

US Trade Representative Greer has argued that various mea-

• These moves should modestly lift inflation and revenue sures can restore the average tariff rate close to its level

• The Trump administration’s renewed tariff emphasis before IEEPA was struck down of nearly 15% (per Figure 1),

also should raise uncertainty and weigh on activity and we continue to expect the average effective tariff rate to

drift higher this year. Such a move up need not all be embed-

After the Supreme Court overruled the Trump administra- ded in the next round of section 301 or 232 tariffs, however.

tion’s tariffs imposed under IEEPA, there was hope that this Indeed, from the administration’s perspective, a more diversi-

action had placed the days of large and unexpected tariff fied tariff regime allows for greater resilience and protection

announcements behind us. The past few weeks suggest other- against any particular legal challenges.

wise. New tariffs under section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act,

citing lax enforcement of forced labor restrictions, effectively Uncertainty to rise again