United States

Research evidence excerpt

United States

Michael Feroli (1-212) 834-5523 Abiel Reinhart (1-617) 712 9122 North America Economic Research J P M O R G A Nmichael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.com abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 24 July 2026

Michael S Hanson (1-212) 622-8603 Bennett Parrish (1-212) 622-9003

michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.com bennett.parrish@jpmchase.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

United States year as the administration seeks to push tariff rates back clos-

er to IEEPA levels, which had been nearly 3%-pt higher.

• Geopolitics takes center stage as energy prices surge

again and new tariffs are announced Figure 2: Effective tariff rate

Percent, through Aug 19 implementation of Section 338 tariffs

• We look for the FOMC to hold rates steady...

• … while watching dissents and the statement for signs

of future rate hike pressure 20

• Also next week: 2Q GDP (2.0%), June core PCE 15

(0.22%m/m), other June activity data 10

Developments this week were centered on the geopolitical 5

front, coupled with some positive news from the latest busi-

ness surveys. An intensification of the Middle East conflict 2025 2026

pushed up oil prices further, and the anticipated tailwind from Source: Yale Budget Lab, J.P. Morgan

lower costs looks to have largely disappeared for now. Front-

month Brent futures rose as high as $101/bbl this week, up Next week’s marquee event will be the FOMC meeting.

from a low of $72 at the start of the month, before settling at While markets usually have a clear consensus the week

$97 on Friday, with year-end futures prices rising to $86 (Fig- before a meeting, elevated inflation understandably leaves

ure 1). Retail gas prices had never fallen as much as crude, conviction divided this time, with a one-third chance of a hike