Eat, Drink, Shop: Mexico Consumer 2Q26 Reporting Season (So Far): Deceleration Confirmed; 2H Stabilization Still Carries Downside Risk

Research evidence excerpt

Eat, Drink, Shop: Mexico Consumer 2Q26 Reporting Season (So Far): Deceleration Confirmed; 2H Stabilization Still Carries Downside Risk

5% - 4.5% (constant currency) Management positioned EBITDA still sees ~US$1.1bn;Reiterated. key tension is operational beat offset savings and input-cost volatility into 3Q with downside near term given SSS deceleration

reiterating downside risk to FY26 EBITDA vs trimmed vs 5.5% prior; EBITDA margin guided slightly below margin/CapEx/expansion as confidence items,

by higher financial expense below the line. normalization expected by year-end. despite margin resilience.

guidance. last year. with SSS the main uncertainty in Mexico and U.S.

Softer Mexico consumer; recovery through quarter.

Core consumer +5% y/y despite softer backdrop. SSS slowed to 2.9% vs JPMe 5.6%. Traffic +~4% Mexico: SSS 1.8% y/y; traffic -1.1%; ticket +3% y/y.

April weakest; sequential improvement in Mexico resilience in weak backdrop. Volume

Mexico consumer dynamics +2% Category commentary includes pockets of higher and higher ticket with balanced performance Limited World Cup benefit overall; weaker Mexico: SSS 1.3% (below JPMe); ticket +2.2%

May/June (World Cup tailwind), and July tracking y/y; EBITDA +24% y/y; supported by retail channels

(traffic/ticket/SSS) growth (e.g., wipes/incontinence/feminine care) across formats; e-commerce remained double- traffic/smaller baskets in larger stores in central offset by transactions -0.9%.

closer to 1Q levels; Starbucks Mexico most and improved price-cost alignment.

alongside core categories low-to-mid single digit. digit and margin accretive. Mexico.

exposed to mobility disruption during matches.

transactions linked

enforcement in key US consumer dynamics Not direct exposure;Mexico.key consumer discussion is U.S.