CATL: 2Q26 result in-line; all eyes on 2027 demand outlook

Research evidence excerpt

CATL: 2Q26 result in-line; all eyes on 2027 demand outlook

leading scale, and a proven ability to deliver stable earnings,

ROE, and free cash flow through the cycle. In our view, CATL remains a rare

industrial technology compounder, with long-term value driven by its technology

moat, execution excellence, and earnings compounding capability. We believe the

unexpected announcement of an A-share buyback (potentially the size of its

H-shr placement this year) could boost investor confidence in the stock. We

have included detailed financial analysis and Mgmt result briefing notes in this

report.

• ASP and unit GP fell in 2Q26; we are not concerned. Tables 3-5 summarize

ASP and unit profit trends. We believe the seemingly lower ASP (-3% y/y) and

GP/unit reflected: 1) sales mix changes (higher domestic ESS contribution), 2)

a strategic move to gain market share as industry peers suffer from higher input

costs (the same investment thesis we highlighted in our China Battery &

Materials report published in Jan-2026, see CATL’s market share trends in

Figure 7-27), and 3) a strategic move during customer price negotiations (A

Repeat of 1Q22? see details in our report).

• All eyes are on the 2027 demand outlook. On the results call, three analysts

asked about 2027 demand, highlighting the market’s key focus. Management

remains highly confident that 2027 battery demand will continue to grow

strongly, potentially exceeding its long-term 20-30% CAGR outlook,

supported by broad-based growth across EVs, passenger and commercial

vehicles, global energy storage, and ongoing electrification trends, which

CATL views as irreversible and increasingly diversified, not reliant on any

single market segment. Management reiterated very strong confidence in

Equity Ratings and Price Targets