Global Data Watch

Research evidence excerpt

Global Data Watch

na) increased at a faster than showed expected wage growth at just 2.4%oya in 2027, ver-

2%ar over the past year, despite a job stall and purchasing sus 2.8%oya in April. Next week’s flash HICP should show

power squeeze. Remarkably, the latest indicators show global core service price inflation stable at 3.3%, but we anticipate a

real goods accelerating to an estimated 4%ar in the three moderation will take hold in the coming months.

months through June. This message of strength should be

highlighted in next week’s US 0.4% m/m real June consump- We expect the US FOMC will leave rates on hold next week

tion gain, but we believe the global consumer is due for a and provide little guidance in the statement or press confer-

breather. Our Chase card data point to soft US July retail ence. However, we think it will be a contested decision.

spending, in line with our projection for a downshift this Hawkish dissents are expected from Hammack and Logan

quarter in US and DM real PCE growth to 1.8%ar and and we look towards discount rate requests in the implemen-

1.2%ar, respectively. Higher inflation increases the risk of a tation note to show soft dissents from a broader set of reserve

more substantial slowing. bank presidents. As we look to September, the case for a hike

rests on strong labor market readings that bring at least two

Figure 3: Policy rate changes in 2026, actual and forecast Board members to argue for a hike.

bp

150 col: +50 f'cst (+275 total) There are sound arguments for hiking next week, but a hike Forecast to end-2026

100 2026 chg YTD would send a confusing signal. Since the Committee voted

50 unanimously to keep rates on hold in June, we have had a

0 benign core inflation reading. Eschewing forward guidance is