US Weekly Prospects

Research evidence excerpt

US Weekly Prospects

North America Economic Research J P M O R G A N

24 July 2026

Global Data Watch: The speed of the sound of silence

• Growth momentum builds as geopolitical drags reemerge

• Risk management warrants a hawkish shift from central banks

• Asia growth broadens, China fiscal ease from early delivery

• Next week: US real PCE (0.4%); Fed, BoE, BoJ hawkish hold

Tariffs and energy sector shocks continue to buffet a macroeconomic landscape of solid growth, sticky inflation, and supportive

policy stances. A midyear decline in oil prices towards $70/bbl amidst waning trade war concerns raised hopes that fading shocks

would reinforce the cyclical lift. While the latest economic reports confirm that growth momentum is building, the energy and

trade shocks headwinds have reemerged. Crude oil prices touched above $100/bbl this week and European natural gas prices

surged, reflecting now-multiple choke points in global supply. The US administration also formalized a first round of section 301

tariffs this week, while threatening new levies on Canada, pharmaceutical products, and another round of 301 tariffs.

These developments temper rather than alter our assessment that risks are skewed upward around our forecast for modestly

above-potential 2.5%ar growth in 2H26. This week’s July DM PMIs highlight the building momentum, with the flash composite

output index moving up 1.5-pts to its highest level since November (Figure 1). Gains were recorded across the globe, with a

notable 2-pt rise in the Euro area where surveys slid most sharply earlier this year. This positive signal is complemented by

sustained strength in Asian industrial activity. A cooling in tech is proving to be more modest than anticipated while a pickup in

non-tech activity has arrived on schedule.