Molina Healthcare: 2Q26 results in line; macro uncertainties persist; maintain UW

Research evidence excerpt

Molina Healthcare: 2Q26 results in line; macro uncertainties persist; maintain UW

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

25 July 2026

Underweight

Molina Healthcare MOH

2Q26 results in line; macro uncertainties persist;

maintain UW

North America Corporate Credit -

Recommendation: We are maintaining our UW recommendation. Revenue and Healthcare (HY)

Medicaid MCR were in line, but Marketplace MCR was lower than estimated.

Rishi S Parekh ACManagement emphasized that they underestimated the element of pricing in the

(1-212) 622-2379

Marketplace given that MOH experienced more adverse selection/unfavorable rishi.parekh@jpmorgan.com

member acuity mix than the rest of the market (and plan to increase their pricing

Rachel Barish

to reduce footprint). We remain cautious of the uncertain macro backdrop, as we (1-212) 270-0970

have not seen the full slew of membership attrition for the year as a result of ACA rachel.barish@jpmorgan.com

headwinds and have yet to observe the impact of work requirements and biannual J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

reverifications on Medicaid. We still prefer CNC to MOH given the former’s

diversification, larger scale and market position. Further, MOH only trades slightly

wide to CNC, with MOH’s 2030 notes currently trading <20bps wide to CNC

2030s. Risks to our recommendation include improved MCR, stronger embedded

earnings, ability to achieve long-term goals, pullback in adverse regulatory risks,

and increased market share.

Table 1: Pricing

RATINGS PRICING

CREDIT RATE RANKING MATURITY SIZE ($mn) M / S&P Px YTW SPREAD

MOH 4.375% Unsecured 6/15/2028 800 Ba2 / BB- 98.250 5.357% 100

MOH 3.875% Unsecured 11/15/2030 650 Ba2 / BB- 92.750 5.799% 135

MOH 6.500% Unsecured 2/15/2031 850 Ba2 / BB- 101.250 6.086% 167