EUROPEAN IBs - Consensus Check; LONG AIBG - Defending the Deposit Base

Research evidence excerpt

EUROPEAN IBs - Consensus Check; LONG AIBG - Defending the Deposit Base

Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales - European Financials AC (44-20) 7134-0355 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 26 July 2026

EUROPEAN IBs - Consensus Check; LONG AIBG - Defending the

Deposit Base

Gigi Sparling

+44 207 134 0355

ghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com

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EUROPEAN IBs: Consensus Check - Still upside for Barclays- Q2 consensus numbers came out last Friday evening for

Barclays - where Kian and Sheel are 5% above on PBT into the quarter despite ‘only’ assuming equities numbers +21% YoY.

Since to quote our US spec sales Rob O’Dwyer the ‘ludicrously’ strong numbers out of the US banks the bar for the European

banks has moved higher - but is still A LOT lower than the prints we’ve seen out of the US names, and looking at consensus that’s

the case in particular for Barclays. A reminder that in the US - GS reported equity revenues +72% YoY and also showed leverage

ratio erosion (albeit RWAs normalised) suggesting the US banks are still leading with balance sheet. MS reported equity revenues

+69% YoY and saw massive NNA inflows in the wealth management business driven by recent IPOs. Clearly both banks

benefitted hugely from the US IPO scene (and AI capex cycle) in the quarter - which simply didn’t replicate in Europe. Unlike

last quarter where the market share loss erosion was much more of a shock for the European banks, that feels much better known

at this point.