Stockland: FY26 Result Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Stockland: FY26 Result Preview

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

26 July 2026

Stockland Overweight

SGP.AX, SGP AU

FY26 Result Preview Price (24 Jul 26):A$4.13

Price Target (Jun-27):A$5.60

• We forecast FY26 FFO of 36.0¢ps, up 6.4% on pcp, marginally (-0.7%) below Australia

consensus and at the bottom end of the guidance range (36.0 to 37.0¢ps).

Australian REITs

AC• 1) Residential settlement guidance, Vic will be key. We assume similar Richard Jones, CFA

settlement volume in FY26 and FY27 - 8,065 settlements broadly at the mid- (61-3) 9633-4038

point of its FY26 guidance (7,500-8,500). FY27 guidance range will be richard.b.jones@jpmorgan.com

interesting, we expect SGP to carry healthy pre-sales into FY27 (~4,300 lots), Connor Eldridge

with 2H CY26 sales rates to determine FY27 settlements. Sales rates held up (61-2) 9003-6415

strongly in Q3 (2,164) but will soften in Q4 given rate hikes and federal budget connor.eldridge@jpmorgan.com

changes weighing on the housing market. Vic will be the most important Adam West

market for FY27 settlements given the shorter sale to settlement time frame. (61-2) 9003-8010

adam.west@jpmorgan.com

• 2) MPC margin trajectory and the Victorian mix drag. Beyond volumes, J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

margin is a key FY27 focus as cost escalation and slowing price growth wash

through resi markets.The tension is geographical mix: if Victoria leads a

Half Yearly Forecasts (FYE Jun) volume recovery, it will weigh on margins vs Qld which will boost group

margins. We forecast a group margin development operating profit margin of FFO per share (A$)

2025A 2026E 2027E

22.8% in FY27. H1 0.11 0.14A 0.14

• 3) Data centre pipeline scale and path to monetisation. SGP has disclosed H2FY 0.230.34 0.230.36 0.230.37