$100 Brent, another passage blocked and a nuclear deal: What happens next in MENA and its stock markets?

Research evidence excerpt

$100 Brent, another passage blocked and a nuclear deal: What happens next in MENA and its stock markets?

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

26 July 2026

$100 Brent, another passage

blocked and a nuclear deal

What happens next in MENA and its stock markets?

In CEEMEA markets, the rise in Brent to $100/bbl with product prices increasing CEEMEA & South Africa Equity

above and beyond what $100 Brent implies (i.e. ,it’s worse than Brent-watchers Strategy

like me think) is a negative for non-GCC markets, especially SA and Turkiye. David Aserkoff, CFA AC

The closure of the SoH and now Bab al-Mandeb mean that higher oil prices (44-20) 7134-5887

are not flowing into GCC coffers. After numerous expert calls, including last david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com

week here, our base case assumption is the US will declare a ceasefire within a J.P. Morgan Securities plc

couple of weeks given the rising crude and product prices as well as rising UST Inga Q Galeni AC

yields in order to restore oil flows through the Strait and Bab Al-Mandeb. The (27-11) 507-0335

inga.galeni@jpmorgan.com

slower pace of US attacks in the last 48 hours hint that such a pause could be coming J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd.

in days, even if we think the next pause may not be the ultimate end of hostilities.

We considered adding Sasol as a hedge to the top 10 at the expense of domestic SA,

but will not for now. While the restricted oil shipments and higher energy prices

hurt both GCC and non-GCC equities in CEEMEA, the large presence of domestic

investors in GCC, massive financial buffers in the form of FX reserves and SWF

assets reduce the impact of lower oil revenues on GCC equities. And we are still

grumpy at the lack of chips/AI in CEEMEA relative to Asia and global equities.