Major Specialty Stores: July Sales Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Major Specialty Stores: July Sales Preview

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

27 July 2026

Major Specialty Stores: July Sales

Preview

Forecasts are entirely our own

• Figure 1 shows a review of June sales, Figure 2 our estimates for July sales, and Japan Equity Research

Figures 3-12 our main assumptions (calendar effects, weather factors), and

Retail

monthly forecast models.

Dairo Murata AC

• June review: Figure 1 shows sales of sector companies. High rainfall, (81-3) 6736 8620

typhoons, and lower temperatures compared to the previous year slowed sales dairo.murata@jpmorgan.com

of summer merchandise. Same-store sales growth at major specialty retailers Ami Terai

fell short of our estimates for all companies except United Arrows. Strong (81-3) 6736-8660

summer merchandise sales in the previous year, due to a dry rainy season and ami.terai@jpmorgan.com

high temperatures, raised the YoY hurdle, which also contributed to slower Kazuha Matsuo

growth. At Ryohin Keikaku, sales of MUJI Ryohin products in Japan saw the (81-3) 6736-8614

largest decline in apparel and miscellaneous goods (-12.4%), reflecting poor kazuha.matsuo@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

sales of summer merchandise, compared to household goods (-6.6%) and food

(-3.1%), which are relatively less affected by weather.

• July weather conditions and forecasts: Temperatures have been generally in

line with the average for this time of year. Compared to the above-average

temperatures of 2025, the YoY difference averaged between -2.3°C and -0.3°C

nationwide. The number of Saturdays, Sundays, and holidays with rainfall of

at least 10mm was zero in Tokyo and Sendai, one in Nagoya and Hiroshima,

two in Osaka and Fukuoka, and three in Sapporo. Compared with 2025, the