Asia Edge: It‘s (maybe) baaaaack

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Edge: It‘s (maybe) baaaaack

Iran has all but collapsed, and the result- consumption. In addition, domestic refineries meet around

ing hit to hydrocarbon exports through the Strait of Hormuz 70% of fuel demand. While Vietnam has sourced the bulk of

has been compounded by strains on shipping through Bab el- its crude oil from Kuwait before the war, it has managed to

Mandeb due to Houthi attacks, as well as pressure on Russian secure imports needs from a diversified supplier base across

and Kazakh exports from Ukrainian bombings of refineries regions since the start of the conflict. The share of hydrocar-

and export terminals. bons in power generation is comparatively low.

Hydrocarbon prices have risen sharply. At the time of writing, Other countries face varying sources of exposure. Bangladesh

benchmark Brent is hovering slightly below US$100/barrel, is particularly vulnerable. The country is highly reliant on

up by a third since the start of the month, while refining mar- natural gas for electricity generation, and domestic refining

gins have risen steeply. With the situation in the Middle East capacity is small. It has also been facing economically disrup-

highly intractable, we mark our average oil assumptions to tive gas shortages (link). Pakistan has low stockpiles and gen-

market for July (US$87/b) and August (US$100/b), before erates close to 40% of its electricity from hydrocarbons. Gas

returning to our Commodities Research team’s baseline pro- shortages have led to the recent closure of two fertilizer plants

jections (see here) which assume oil prices will fall to US$78/ (link). Mongolia is vulnerable due to its sole reliance on Rus-

b by end-2026 and US$55/b by end-2027. sia for gasoline and diesel supply and the absence of domestic

refining capacity.