Australia and New Zealand: Weekly Prospects

Research evidence excerpt

Australia and New Zealand: Weekly Prospects

J P M O R G A N Economic Research

27 July 2026

Australia and New Zealand:

Weekly Prospects

• Australia’s 2Q inflation data is in focus this week. We expect headline to print Australian and New Zealand Interest

at 0.8%q/q and trimmed mean at 0.9%, below RBA SoMP forecasts which are Rate Strategy

implied at 1.4%q/q and 1.0%q/q, respectively. Underpinning this is an Ben K Jarman

expectation of +0.4%m/m (+0.3%m/m trimmed mean) for the remaining (61-2) 9003-7982

monthly report of June, which would keep the monthly %oya within the range ben.k.jarman@jpmorgan.com

realized since the oil price shock, at 4.3%oya. Over the April and May Tom Kennedy

monthlies, pass-through from higher oil prices and other supply constraints (61-2) 9003-7981

related to the Middle East conflict has been less than feared. The experience of tom.kennedy@jpmorgan.com

2022 and subsequent global central bank research argued that large, Tom Ryan

(61-2) 9003-7632

observable, common shocks can coordinate pricing behavior and so drive thomas.f.ryan@jpmorgan.com

faster spillover to related prices. But this has not been dramatic so far in the J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

categories with either higher intrinsic oil correlation or most obvious loading

to materials shortages or transport/logistics costs, like fresh produce, clothing/

footwear, travel prices or furnishings.

• Relative to the magnitude of the shock, inflation has been benign with the

trimmed mean implied by the monthly data continuing to run at a 0.8% 3m/3m

pace through May. This is also in line with what top-down Phillips Curve

models have suggested. Stepping back, the entirety of the pick-up in inflation

since mid-25 has been in goods/energy rather than services, so we quibble with