Backlog resilience encouraging but AI monetisation holds the key to margin comfort

Research evidence excerpt

Backlog resilience encouraging but AI monetisation holds the key to margin comfort

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drive the Q2 margin weakness (including investment into the test environment

for Joule Work, cost increases linked to the sovereignty offering, marketing Scott Silver - Specialist Sales - European TMT

investments for the Autonomous product launch, the dilutive impact from the (44-20) 7134-0412

Reltio acquisition and a significant increase in R&D costs in part driven by scott.silver@jpmorgan.com

increased token expenditures). Whilst SAP management reiterated confidence Key Changes (FYE Dec)

in the new profit guidance on cost containment measures (e.g. stricter hiring Prev Cur Δ

and token spend optimisation), it will likely remain a key question as to whether Adj. EPS - 26E (€) 7.12 7.01 -1.5%

investment intensity needs to stay higher for longer and is sufficient to deliver Adj. EPS - 27E (€) 8.35 8.23 -1.4%

competitive AI product as SAP progresses through its AI investment plans Adj. EBIT - 26E (€ mn) 11,717 11,773 0.5%

Adj. EBIT - 27E (€ mn) 13,289 13,459 1.3%

(driving AI product and driving its own internal AI transformation).

• Current cloud backlog of ~26% Y/Y CC in Q2 shows ~1pt acceleration Style Exposure

versus Q1 of ~25% Y/Y; on an organic basis the trend is broadly stable:

With the current cloud backlog broadly stable on an organic basis between Q1

and Q2, the current trend is running better than the slight deceleration built into

the guidance would imply. Bloomberg consensus before Q2 results was ~23%

Y/Y CC for 2026 and so we think it's possible this may nudge up given the better

than expected Q2 delivery. This would still be a slight deceleration, but a

slightly less steep deceleration from the ~26% Y/Y CC delivered in Q2. The