Rumo: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: A Soft Quarter Ahead; Focus Remains on Cosan Stake Sale

Research evidence excerpt

Rumo: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: A Soft Quarter Ahead; Focus Remains on Cosan Stake Sale

Guilherme Mendes AC Latin America Equity Research

(55-11) 4950-4105 27 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

guilherme.g.mendes@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

We have a Neutral rating on RAIL3. While the volume outlook

remains favourable through 2026 and the company benefits

from unique, long-term exposure to Brazil’s grain harvest, we

anticipate limited upside from freight prices in the near term.

Looking further ahead, Rumo appears increasingly vulnerable

to cyclical fluctuations as take-or-pay contracts are now being

negotiated with shorter notice periods – a trend partly driven by

subdued commodity prices. The outlook for the next harvest

cycle is also being clouded by growing El Niño concerns. Taken

YTD 1m 3m 12m together, these factors leave us seeing limited near-term

Abs -8.1% 4.6% -14.2% -19.0% catalysts that would justify a re-rating, despite a valuation that

Rel -16.1% 2.5% -5.5% -49.1%

may appear attractive at first glance. This reinforces our Neutral

Company Data stance on the stock.

Shares O/S (mn) 1,855

Valuation52-week range (R$) 17.45-12.16

Market cap ($ mn) 4,950.65 Our Dec-2027 price target for RAIL3 of R$20.0 is based on a

Exchange rate 5.08 finite DCF, in which our forecasts match the concession term

Free float (%) 75.7%

3M ADV (mn) 12.16 and no perpetuity is considered. We assume a cost of equity of

3M ADV ($ mn) 33.9 14.5% in BRL nominal, and we incorporate only the first phase

Volatility (90 Day) 34 of the Lucas do Rio Verde project into our valuation, rather than

Index Ibovespa

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 10|4|1 the entire project as we previously did on a stand-alone basis for

our fair equity value calculation.