Africa Edge

Research evidence excerpt

Africa Edge

ause the authorities are

a few cases even pick up the pace. That narrative didn’t last likely to maintain fuel subsidies, allowing disinflation to con-

long. Once the conflict ignited in late February, inflation – tinue. Zambia is different: we still see scope for a cut, but the

and just as importantly, inflation expectations – started to risk is that the August move comes in smaller than the 75bp

push higher again. we currently assume.

We noted in last week’s Africa Edge publication that June Figure 2: Rate cutting cycles for Africa Edge

prints were beginning to cool as oil initially eased. But with %pts

0that move now reversing, the balance of risks has swung back

decisively: inflation is once again skewed firmly to the -1

upside. The one partial offset has been FX. Most regional cur-

-2

rencies have stayed relatively steady, with two clear excep-

tions. The EGP has been more “beta” to both regional and -3

global risk dynamics, while the GHS still faces underlying -4

pressures, largely tied to the energy sector. More broadly, Delivered in 2026 Still to be delivered in 2026

commodity exporters have benefited from firmer commodity -5 Angola Ghana Zambia Nigeria Egypt Kenya Uganda

prices, and importers have leaned on improved buffers built Source: Various Central Banks, J.P. Morgan

over the past few years to contain currency weakness.

Nigeria: CBN left rates unchanged amid

inflation upside concerns

Gbolahan Taiwo

The CBN held the policy rate at 26.5%, as widely expected.

The MPC’s message was clear: inflation risks are skewed to

the upside, with the renewed Middle East hostilities raising

the odds of another energy-driven shock that could spill into

domestic prices. In that context, the Committee views the cur-