Europe, Middle East and Africa Emerging Markets Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

Europe, Middle East and Africa Emerging Markets Weekly

J P M O R G A N Europe Economic Research

27 July 2026

Europe, Middle East and Africa

Emerging Markets Weekly

EMEA EM CBs charting their own course EM, Economic and Policy Research

Rising tensions in the Middle East and higher crude oil prices are influencing Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc

monetary policy decisions across EMEA EM, but in a rather unexpected way. The (44 20) 7742-2466

divergent responses reflect differences in domestic conditions and the relative nicolaie.alexandru@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

weight policymakers assign to external versus internal factors. Hungary and

Türkiye are both highly exposed to the hydrocarbon shock through energy imports, Jose Cerveira

(44-20) 7742-3556

yet Hungary was able to cut its policy rate, supported by improved market jose.a.cerveira@jpmorgan.com

sentiment following the recent parliamentary elections. Türkiye, by contrast, J.P. Morgan Securities plc

remains in a more fragile macro-financial position and has left its policy Sonja Keller

framework unchanged. South Africa presents a different case altogether. With (27-11) 507-0376

external vulnerabilities playing a smaller role, the SARB remains focused on sonja.c.keller@jpmorgan.com

anchoring domestic inflation expectations and reinforcing the credibility of its 3% JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Johannesburg

Branch

inflation target. Despite June inflation accelerating to 5%oya, above the 4.7%

Anatoliy A Shal

consensus forecast, the SARB kept the policy rate unchanged at 7% in a split 4–2

(971) 4561-2005

decision. anatoliy.a.shal@jpmorgan.com

In this context, the National Bank of Hungary cut by 25bp to 5.75% as expected Gbolahan S Taiwo