US Tactical Derivatives Strategy: Earnings Trades: GLW Downside Risk, SHOP Beat-and-Raise

Research evidence excerpt

US Tactical Derivatives Strategy: Earnings Trades: GLW Downside Risk, SHOP Beat-and-Raise

Bram Kaplan, CFA AC Global Markets Strategy

(1-212) 272-1215 27 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

bram.kaplan@jpmorgan.com

Figure 1: GLW pulled back from record highs in Figure 2: Call skew on SHOP is flat

July 1M 110-120% volatility spread

Price Chart w/ 1x2 breakeven

275 4%

225 3%

2%

150 1%

100 0%

Jan'26 Apr'26 Jul'26 -1%

GLW Break-even

-2%

Jul'25 Oct'25 Jan'26 Apr'26 Jul'26

Source: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy, Bloomberg Finance Source: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy

L.P.

Buy SHOP Call Spreads to Position for Upside From an Expected

Beat and Raise

• Strategy: We recommend buying August call spreads ahead of Shopify’s (SHOP)

earnings on 8/5 to position for an expected beat and raise. Our Internet analysts (Bryan

Smilek and team) are bullish on SHOP with a $155 price target (36% upside). They have

added it to the JPM Analyst Focus List and see potential upside to 2Q results vs.

management guidance.

• Rationale: Our analysts view SHOP as well positioned to benefit from AI, with offerings

across each layer of the agentic opportunity for e-commerce platforms: traffic channels,

on-platform, and infrastructure. This is supported by SHOP’s data stack built on 20+

years of commerce data, its demand conversion flywheel, AI merchant solutions, UCP

(universal commerce protocol) leadership, and its ability to reduce complexity across the

merchant ecosystem. They project solid GMV (gross merchandise value) growth

supported by strength across small/medium businesses, enterprise, geographies, and

emerging channels such as POS and B2B. While international growth and the enterprise

volume ramp may prove more volatile, they believe SHOP’s 2Q revenue growth

guidance is conservative.