US Daily Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Commentary

Global Markets Research

27 July 2026US Daily Commentary

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

Review & Preview North America Economics

Review Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

Durablegoodsorders: Durable goods orders rose 0.3% in June (Nomura: 3.4%, +1 212 667 9347

Consensus: 1.8%) following a 4.0% decline in May. Aircraft transportation orders rose only Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

modestly, despite a sharp jump in Boeing net orders, while motor vehicle orders fell. jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9637Excluding transportation, durable goods orders grew 0.6% m-o-m (Nomura and

Consensus: 0.8%) following a 1.8% m-o-m increase in May. Strength in new orders were Ruchir Sharma - NSI

driven by tech-related components. Core capital goods shipments (nondefense capital ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9186goods excluding aircraft), an input in GDP's equipment investment, rose 1.9% m-o-m

(Nomura: 1.1%, Consensus: 0.6%) from 0.2% m-o-m in May. Strength in shipments was

broad-based and recent durable goods reports have highlighted that business investment

is broadening beyond the tech/AI sector (Fig.1). That said, aircraft shipments and durable

goods inventories came in significantly below our expectation. Overall, we have lowered

our Q2 GDP tracking estimate to 2.4% q-o-q ar from 2.5% previously, while our estimate

for real final sales to private domestic purchasers remained unchanged at 3.4% q-o-q ar.

Note the advance estimate of Q2 GDP is scheduled for release on 30 July.

DallasFedmanufacturingsurvey: The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index rose to

1.3 in July from 0.0 in June. Production, new orders, and shipments rose in the month.

Employment growth and work hours were relatively stable in July. Price and wage-related