2Q Preview: Building Momentum, Still A Ways to Go

Research evidence excerpt

2Q Preview: Building Momentum, Still A Ways to Go

IdeaMmechanism alongside the Swipe. Second, we believe the IRL Events tab

could support monetization and brand perception in local markets, although

it remains unclear how quickly the company can scale the offering. Finally,

we're watching for new product announcements on the print as the

company has indicated making some bigger swings in the back half.

Earnings Set-up for MTCH: Since the start of 2024, MTCH has been rangebound

between $30-$40/share as the company balances negative Tinder user trends with

a discounted valuation (currently at a 11% '26 FCF yield). To break above this range,

we believe MTCH must demonstrate sustained progress toward stabilizing Tinder’s

user base. We lean slightly positive into 2Q earnings given our expectation for

continued Tinder MAU improvements & EBITDA upside, but it's unlikely to be

conclusive enough to break meaningfully outside of the stock's ~$30-$40

trading range.

GRND (OW, $18 PT): 3 Key Points

1. We see upside to GRND's FY26 revenue guide, returning it to a more

steady beat & raise cadence: We believe GRND positioned itself well with

conservative initial FY26 revenue guidance. GRND then raised guidance by

approximately 1.5pts in 1Q, and we expect a further 1-2pt increase in 2Q

given a combination of: conservatism, advertising traction, and monetization

optimizations. Sensor Tower data supports this, pointing to revenue growth

in line with 1Q (which would be a meaningful beat as GRND posted 38% y/y

revenue growth in 1Q vs. a ~21.5% y/y FY26 guide).

2. Alternative data points to improving MAU trends: One of the biggest bear

concerns over the past year has been slowing MAU growth. Although GRND

no longer provides quantitative quarterly MAU disclosure, Sensor Tower