Single & Ready to Mingle?

Research evidence excerpt

Single & Ready to Mingle?

product relaunch targeted for certain markets in 4Q26, but at this Q1 0.19 - 0.32a - 0.12

Q2 (3.55) - 0.18 - 0.16

point it's hard to ascertain the probability of success. As a result, BMBL has de- Q3 0.33 - 0.19 - 0.18

Q4 (5.44) - 0.09 - 0.14

rated and now trades at just a ~3x '27 EBITDA… or a 35% FCF yield. We see a

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

higher intrinsic value if the company can execute as our DCF (a secondary valuation

methodology) shows a $7 per share valuation assuming BMBL is able to stem

revenue declines at the cost of perpetually declining margins.

Value could potentially be unlocked in the private markets: Although that

valuation seems disconnected from a hypothetical intrinsic value, this is a story

which struggles in the public markets: perceived melting ice cubes without a

guaranteed capital returns framework. Theoretically, that issue goes away under

private ownership which could unlock trapped value. Plus, strong network effects

leads online dating sites to have a long-tail of FCF generation (see MTCH's

evergreen businesses which generate cash despite far smaller user bases & brand

recognition). And note BMBL still has a sizeable user base of 18M MAUs, still likely

the second largest dating app in developed markets… and which could stabilize if

upcoming product innovation is successful.

The current valuation could be of potential interest to a financial sponsor with a

relatively quick FCF payback: As online dating is a relatively concentrated industry,

there are few potential strategic landing spots. Yet given the valuation, we see a Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

potential case for why a financial sponsor might become interested.