INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JULY 27, 2026

20 SECONDS:

• Geopol de-escalation over weekend. US & Iran paused strikes as Oman holds Hormuz talks (brent

nearing back towards $90). This morning, APAC higher as oil retraced but continue to see Tech

sectors muted after Fri's US weakness. EU/US futures in green, with NDX leading.

• Positioning Intel’s (PI) US TPM 4wk change triggered the -1.5z "attractive" threshold. Aggregate

global positioning is light which has historically been a supportive setup for equities (full note below)

• On Energy, PI has not seen any material pickup in positioning, unlike March (Global Energy L/S

ratio at 30th %-tile, net exposure at 24th). Research also out with a note looking at El Niño and oil:

global food CPI impact from El Niño modest on its own but doubles when combined with energy

shock, adding 0.6%pt ar to 1H27 global headline inflation.

• Overall, focus remains on Tech. PI writes while Semis buying rebounded in the US, both Tech

Hardware and Semis continue to be sold in Europe and Asia. Global Semis are still crowded on

longer term metrics (98th %-tile for L/S ratio & bet exposure), but 12m %-tiles have cooled.

• Key sector news incl. WSJ reported NVDA in talks with OpenAI to guarantee $250bn financing for

data center (risks reviving circular financing debates?); Chinese chipmaker CMXT rose almost 500%

in market debut; Moonshot to release weights of Kimi K3 for public download.

• APAC rotation on our books: Clients bought China (onshore) and Japan, funded by selling

Korea/Taiwan. This week, keep an eye on Politburo meeting – research expect faster deployment of

the existing budget, with policy support tilted towards AI infra, high-tech mfg, energy security and

broader self-reliance initiatives.