EM FX

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 27 July 2026

RUB CBR cut a token 25 bp on Friday, perhaps a minor surprise to the generally

accepted 'unchanged' view, but there really wasn't huge impact on either fx or rates. Spot did

dribble back down just below 78.00 but it felt more like squaring up into the weekend than

anything too significant. I think it remains a bit on dips but it's certainly finding it hard to break

through 78.50.

ZAR A bit of relief this morning as USDZAR makes a low of 16.6550 after the pause in strikes over

the weekend between US and Iran. A messy prior week for EMFX, particularly ZAR, after the

SARB shocked by staying on hold, inviting a wave of ZAR long unwinds and stops. It was

interesting however to see some selling of USDZAR emerge on the 16.90 handle, and for now

it does feel rallies to 17.00 should be capped. That being said, both Iran/US and the FOMC will

be important for the pair this week, so happy to sit more neutral for now and take my guide

from there. Flow Friday we saw heaving ZAR selling from systematics (about 3x to 4x above

average), although net ZAR buying from HFs and RM.

TRY We are seeing inflows from offshore clients today, as Middle East risk sentiment recovers and

energy prices move lower. State bank offers are currently at 47.3625, although it’s normal to see

the market establish an equilibrium somewhat below the offer this morning. We remain long

TRY, as we continue to see little prospect of a near-term change in the FX framework. Real

TRY appreciation remains an important anchor for financial stability and disinflation. Energy

prices remain a key risk to monitor, as a renewed and sustained rise in oil would increase the