G10 FX

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 27 July 2026

EUR Two weeks is a long time in markets, not long enough in real time out of the office! Went away

thinking just navigate CPI and this will go to sleep, well succeeded but the ramp up in Middle

east tensions and associated asset price movements clearly enough to upset the applecart. Just

trying to catch fully back up here but with the Middle East, tariff man back and a Fed meeting

upcoming which nearly got to 50/50 pricing I am not massively compelled to dive in with a

highly convicted spiel here on day 1.

Not carrying much risk, got stopped in zar and still got huf which I think trades reasonably well

behaved. Did think the GPIF news just before my departure could have mirrored my two

weeker of July 2024 but alas not for usdjpy this time despite the softer US inflation print!

The euro was 1.14 on the Friday I left, and here we are! I guess the question is why isn’t the

currency lower given the ramp up in gas prices and move in US yields? The market is clearly

short so some of the recent position unwinds I guess must have been somewhat supportive, the

ECB was as hawkish as was expected so no disappointment there and the regional data has held

up also (although PMI prob didn’t capture this recent run up in commodity prices) are my

guesses. From here lets digest the FOMC outcome this week but I don’t really have a strong

enough view to plough in two footed but if this morning’s price action continues for a few days

and the Fed doesn’t hike maybe we see better levels gun to head. Given the lack of overall

movement key levels remain as per my last piece two weeks ago, 1.1340 and 1.15 ish!