East Asia: Terms of trade amid tech and oil volatility

Research evidence excerpt

East Asia: Terms of trade amid tech and oil volatility

, benefits directly as a leading pro-

outlook, along with 'higher for longer’ memory upcycle view

ducer of memory products and has captured the largest tech

from our Asia tech analysts (Figure 6). While positive tech-

windfall, amplified by AI-related demand and supply bottle-

related TOT shocks may continue to support nominal income

necks, compared to the previous semiconductor cycle.

– including corporate earnings and fiscal revenues, their

impact on real production and real net exports is less straight-

Second, China's much larger and more diversified manufac-

forward. A larger nominal trade surplus does not necessarily

turing base makes its aggregate export and import price indi-

translate into stronger real growth if it is driven by pure price

ces less sensitive to AI-related price shocks. AI-related prod-

gains rather than improvements in product quality, production

ucts account for a larger share of Korea's and Taiwan's trade

volumes, or value-added creation. How net exports' contribu-

structures, allowing tech price gains to translate more directly

tion to real GDP growth and real trade gains evolve across the

into headline TOT improvements. In contrast, China’s broad-

region in 2H26 may warrant a closer examination.

er trade basket dilutes the impact of any single technology

cycle. In addition, some imported AI-related components may

Figure 6: Memory price and Korea's export value indices

ultimately serve domestic demand rather than exports, given %oya

China’s large domestic tech demand, thereby weakening the 300

Memory chip price index

pass-through from higher import prices to export prices at the 250 (Dotted lines = f'cst)

aggregate level. 200

Tech export value index 150

Semi. export value index