JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

Research evidence excerpt

JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

J P M O R G A N Global Credit Research

27 July 2026

EM corporate performance remained resilient last week amidst continued Emerging Markets Corporate

Middle East tensions/rising oil prices, AI/tech related developments and Strategy

newly announced US tariffs which altogether dampened market sentiment. Yang-Myung Hong AC

While CEMBI BD total return was negative as UST curve bear flattened (+9bp to (1-212) 834-4274

+15bp), CEMBI spreads tightened -1bp to 162bp with spread returns of +0.1%. ym.hong@jpmorgan.com

Relative to other asset classes, EM corporates performed better than EM J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

sovereigns (+3bp to 204bp), US IG (+3bp to 95bp) and US HY (+9bp to 317bp) Alisa Meyers

last week.We think CEMBI spreads can maintain the improved stability and keep (1-212) 834-9151

alisa.meyers@jpmorgan.com

a Neutral stance, preferring the BBB to BB space sprinkled with OWs in single J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

names with catalysts or robust fundamental dynamics. We are reluctant to reopen Dhawal U Mehta

broader HY oil OWs given tight valuations, higher rates risk, lower oil forecasts (91-22) 6157 3779

and weaker seasonal liquidity. dhawal.mehta@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Comparing CEMBI’s credit performance since the re-escalation of the

conflict versus its initial phase in early March, we note minimal differences on

an aggregate basis, but more substantial underlying divergences. Although

HY-heavy segments such as Argentina, Colombia, and Ghana continue to post

positive performance, this has been significantly more muted than in the initial

episode, driven by compressed valuations at such outperformers. At the same time,

Bahrain credits have been weighed down by a sharp deterioration in the country’s