J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

27 July 2026

J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning

Intelligence

Rates trending lower, supply manageable, $1bn into

ETFs on Friday. Wings still rich, belly cheap. New issue

spread widens. August supply looms. SMA and ETF

capital origins.

Securitized Products & Public – Our rates team sees scope for Treasury yields to move modestly higher from

Finance Municipals Strategy

here, even if the Fed remains on hold, but would not chase the bearish impulse.

Peter DeGroot AC

– After a very challenging July, rates are trending lower this morning, tax- (1-212) 834-7293

exempt supply looks manageable at $7.7bn (vs. $12.3bn last year, or 0.9x the last peter.degroot@jpmorgan.com

5 Fed week avg.), and Friday saw +$1bn into ETFs. Ye Tian

(1-212) 834-3051

– Beyond this week, we expect heavy August supply will be priced to clear the ye.tian@jpmorgan.com

market, despite solid reinvestment capital, as dealers took on large high new Roisin A Gargan

issue balances in July. Moreover, the direction and magnitude of UST rate (1-212) 834-7010

change are likely to play an even more pivotal role than usual in muni market roisin.gargan@jpmchase.com

liquidity, given last week’s deceleration in fund flow momentum. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

– While the muni space is not universally cheap nor a wholesale buy, investors

may find value in areas where liquidity has been most strained. This includes the

5-10yr part of the curve, where HG tax-exempt munis are now 0.3 to 1.2 sigma

cheap vs. both USTs and corporates, and as much as 1.8 sigma cheap vs. taxable

munis, as well as short-calls and the New York complex. Value is less apparent

in the wings of the tax-exempt curve, where rates remain somewhat rich versus

taxable fixed income.