My 2c on Financials: US Financials Sector Specialist Commentary Banks • Insurance • Diversified Financials

Research evidence excerpt

My 2c on Financials: US Financials Sector Specialist Commentary Banks • Insurance • Diversified Financials

Rob O'Dwyer - Specialist Sales - US Financials AC North America Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

rob.odwyer@jpmorgan.com JPM | US Fins Daily - My 2c...V / MA

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC / SPGI / ARES / HOOD

27 July 2026

Ares – Ares has been guiding for further FRE margin expansion in 2026, with the latest model reflecting a margin walk-up in the

middle of the typical annual 0-150bps range. The Real Assets segment is expected to contribute increased performance fees in

2026 and 2027. Ken’s most recent update notes that catch up fees from RE-XI ($4.1mn) will not repeat in 2Q, and no other

material catch up fees are expected so as always lots of focus base management fee growth for the Alts. Fundraising is expected

to be strong - major fundraising included the flagship ABF fund, Pathfinder-III, which raised $8.5bn in the quarter, and

approximately $3.5bn in wealth flows. More from Ken here.

Robinhood – Investor expectations for HOOD are high given the World Cup and the perception that this event was extremely

helpful for prediction markets. Transaction revenue is forecasted at $757 million (+21% q/q, +40% y/y), reflecting higher equity

volumes ($956 billion) and options volume (773 million contracts), though crypto volumes are modeled lower due to continued

challenges in the crypto environment year-to-date. Fee rates are modeled relatively flat from 1Q, except for the Robinhood App

take rate, which is down ~6bps sequentially (JPMe 45bps). Prediction markets volumes are raised to 13 billion contracts in 2Q26,

supporting other transaction revenue of $205 million. Net interest revenue is modeled at $427 million (+19% q/q, +20% y/y), with