Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519): Model update: We continue to forecast FY2026 overshoot, share price reaction to 2Q results looks overdone

Research evidence excerpt

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519): Model update: We continue to forecast FY2026 overshoot, share price reaction to 2Q results looks overdone

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

27 July 2026

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519)

Model update: We continue to forecast FY2026 Overweight

overshoot, share price reaction to 2Q results looks 4519.T, 4519 JP

overdone Price (27 Jul 26):¥6,848

Price Target (Dec-26):¥11,000

We revise our earnings estimates to reflect 2Q FY2026 results. We revise our Japan Equity Research

FY2026 operating profit estimate to ¥715.5 billion (from ¥712.4 billion; core

Biotechnology & Pharmaceuticals/

operating profit guidance ¥670.0 billion; Bloomberg consensus ¥699.8 billion), Medical Technologies & Services

continuing to expect an overshoot versus guidance. We maintain our ¥11,000 price AC Seiji Wakao, Ph.D.

target and our Overweight rating.

(81-3) 6736-8612

seiji.wakao@jpmorgan.com

Solid sales of Roche’s Hemlibra and Actemra and of Galderma’s Nemluvio were

Yugo R. Kamimura, Ph.D.

also confirmed in the companies’ April–June results. Roche changed its FY2026 (81-3) 6736-8635

YoY growth guidance for Hemlibra from the low-single digits to the mid-single yugo.kamimura@jpmorgan.com

digits. 1H export sales were already largely secured in line with Chugai’s initial Naoko Saito

guidance, so we think any overshoot was likely limited, but expect an overshoot (81-3) 6736-8693

in 2H. We expect Actemra export sales will also exceed guidance from 2H. We naoko.saito@jpmorgan.com

think that initial guidance for Nemluvio export sales and royalty income are JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

attainable, as well (no individual company plans disclosed for either). Style Exposure

Chugai recognizes royalty income based on monthly and quarterly forecasts, and