Kinsale: 2Q26 Wrap: Modest EPS Reduction on Lower Premium Growth, Price Target and Rating Unchanged

Research evidence excerpt

Kinsale: 2Q26 Wrap: Modest EPS Reduction on Lower Premium Growth, Price Target and Rating Unchanged

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

27 July 2026

Kinsale Neutral

KNSL, KNSL US

2Q26 Wrap: Modest EPS Reduction on Lower Premium Price (24 Jul 26):$349.10

Growth, Price Target and Rating Unchanged Price Target (Dec-27):$390.00

Reducing EPS estimates modestly, no change to December 2027 price target Insurance - Life & Nonlife

ACof $390 and Neutral rating. KNSL reported 2Q26 results on 7/23/26 and hosted Pablo S. Singzon

its conference call the next day. (1-212) 622-2295

pablo.s.singzon@jpmorgan.com

• EPS projections are decreasing as follows: 3Q26 from $5.48 to $5.33, 4Q26 Kevin Wijendra

from $6.16 to $6.05, and 2027 from $23.56 to $22.97. We are assuming (1) (1-212) 622-7054

slower gross premium growth and (2) lower net investment income, partly kevin.wijendra@jpmorgan.com

offset by (3) higher buybacks ($70 million per quarter, up from $55 million). J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• 2Q26 summary: Net written premiums weaker than assumed; margins

and share repurchases better than expected. 2Q26 operating EPS was Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

$5.54, higher than our $5.18 estimate and consensus of $5.08. Adjusting for the Adj. EPS ($)

unfavorable variance in catastrophe losses and the favorable variance in 2025A 2026E 2027E

reserve releases, we estimate KNSL’s EPS would have been $5.51, still better Q1 3.71 5.11A

Q2 4.78 5.54A

than assumed. Compared to our model, the upside in earnings was driven by Q3 5.21 5.33

higher net earned premiums, a lower combined ratio, and a lower share count Q4 5.81 6.05

from higher share buybacks ($100 million vs. $55 million estimate), partly FY 19.51 21.95 22.97

offset by slightly lower investment income. Underwriting income was better