JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - What Matters: Top-down equity view for the week

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - What Matters: Top-down equity view for the week

Specialist Sales

US Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

27 July 2026

JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - What Matters: Top-down equity

view for the week

Marissa Gitler

+1 212 622 2934

marissa.gitler@jpmorgan.com

US Thematics focuses on key macro views, market debates, and favored investment themes.

Bottom LIne:

1) Oil’s sharp move lower is contextually noisy. The ceasefire pause is not a peace deal, Chinese demand disappointed vs.

estimates, and there remains a complex multi-factor supply/demand backdrop (Russia, Hormuz, crack spreads) all of which

argue for a structurally elevated crude range ($75-90 Brent). The equity relief rally driven by falling oil should not be

extrapolated as a durable signal, and the disinflationary read-through remains premature given refining margin stickiness and

Warsh’s uncertain policy reaction function.

2) The pivotal near-term binary is the Fed and MAG7 earnings, the combination of which will resolve the “healthy

rotation vs. risk-off unwind” debate. If hyperscaler CAPEX confirms AI demand and the Fed holds, the RSP/SPY breakout

and sector broadening could extend meaningfully; if hyperscaler earnings disappoint there will be a lot of looming questions

on the go-forward as the buildout has been a broad economic growth driver.

Oil: Easing crude prices drove recent equity strength but will not

define the market for the rest of the week

The bounce in stocks overnight was driven largely by oil weakness and should be taken with a grain of salt as it relates to

a readthrough for the equity go-forward.

The collapse in oil overnight was on somewhat weak grounds as the market reacted to the fact that the US decided to stop its