Mexico: June Trade Balance - Taking stock of a solid 1H26

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico: June Trade Balance - Taking stock of a solid 1H26

AmericaBanco J.P.Morgan, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, J.P.Morgan Grupo FinancieroLatin Economic Research J P M O R G A N 27 July 2026Gabriel Lozano

(52-55) 5540-9558

gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com

manufacturing activity, they should be viewed in the context of the strong gains recorded in

recent months, which still left intermediate imports growing 34.9%3m/3m saar.

Imports more closely tied to domestic demand, such as consumer and capital goods, showed

mixed performance in June. Consumer goods imports rose 4.3%samr and continue to

underpin consumption growth, even as they may contribute to leakages from domestic

demand into GDP. By contrast, capital goods imports slipped 0.4%samr. At any rate, strong

growth in the first two months in 2Q left capital goods imports rising 14.8%saar in 2Q26.

Overall, the trade sector appears well positioned to continue supporting growth in 2H26, as

the drivers behind the strong export performance in 1H26 remain largely unchanged and

could be complemented by new tailwinds. The global technology boom is expected to persist,

supporting demand for technology-related exports, while our global team's expectation of a

cyclical improvement in the second half of the year could further boost demand for non-tech

exports. Mexico may also benefit from the rebuilding of US tariff policy, which confirms

Mexico’s relative tariff position.

Offsetting exports’ contribution to growth, imports also have scope to strengthen further as

the strong peso continues to support consumer goods imports and, potentially, capital goods

imports. However, progress on investment—as discussed in our midyear outlook—will

depend on the evolution of domestic and trade-related uncertainties. The ongoing USMCA