Saipem 2Q26 First Take - Lower FY26 EBITDA Guidance Reflects Middle East Costs and Portfolio Changes

Research evidence excerpt

Saipem 2Q26 First Take - Lower FY26 EBITDA Guidance Reflects Middle East Costs and Portfolio Changes

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

27 July 2026

Saipem Overweight

SPMI.MI, SPM IM

2Q26 First Take - Lower FY26 EBITDA Guidance Price (27 Jul 26):€4.36

Reflects Middle East Costs and Portfolio Changes

European Oil & Gas

Our Take: Saipem reported 2Q EBITDA 13% below Street expectations, Alejandra Magana AC

primarily reflecting weaker ABS margins of 14.9% versus 16.5% in 1Q due to ME (44-20) 3493-8031

conflict-related costs and softer Offshore Drilling margins of 21.3% vs. 34.6% in alejandra.x.magana@jpmchase.com

1Q, reflecting lower drilling activity and changes in fleet mix. Below the operating J.P. Morgan Securities plc

line, an effective tax rate of ~70% provided an additional headwind to earnings. Specialist Sales contact details:

Second quarter cash flows were resilient, with CFO coming in 4% below JPMe

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales -

estimates and FCF 2% above. European Energy

(44-20) 7134-1356

The company also lowered FY26 EBITDA guidance by ~8% to €1.75B, while ian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

reiterating its remaining targets, including revenue of €15.5B, operating cash flow

of €1.0B, capex of €450mm, and free cash flow of ~€600mm.The revised EBITDA

outlook incorporates additional Middle East-related costs, including those

incurred in 1H and reflected in 2H estimates, as well as the impact of the shallow-

water drilling fleet disposal announced in June, which is expected to close in 3Q.

Revenue guidance assumes Middle East execution remains broadly in line with

1H26. The outlook does not include any recovery of Middle East-related costs,

with commercial discussions ongoing, although management noted that clients are

showing “signs of support”.