Daily Economic Briefing: What‘s the frequency, Kenneth?

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: What‘s the frequency, Kenneth?

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

27 July 2026

Daily Economic Briefing

What’s the frequency, Kenneth?

• The week ahead is busy with central bank meetings, with the Fed, BoJ, and BoE Economic and Policy Research

all set to decide on rates. We expect rates to remain on hold this week but — Nora Szentivanyi

as was the case with the ECB last week — look for meeting signals consistent (44-20) 7134-7544

with our view that the next move for each of these central banks is a hike. nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• In the US, markets are pricing in a close to 40% chance of a hike, reflecting Maia Crook

uncertainty over the stance of new Fed Chair Warsh. While the committee is (1-212) 622-8435

divided, the hawkish members are likely to hold their views with greater maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

conviction. We believe Chair Warsh would find support for a hike if he JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

advocated for action. While Warsh has not provided a signal on where he Alex Gallin

stands, a hike would build his inflation-fighting bonafides and establish his (1-212) 270-5492

independence from the administration. At the same time, a hike following a soft alex.gallin@jpmorgan.com

CPI and payrolls report, and a meeting with no dissent for a hold, would send JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

a confusing signal about the Fed’s reaction function. Joseph Lupton

(1-212) 834-5735

• Assuming the Fed stays on hold, we expect the FOMC will provide little joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

guidance in the statement or press conference, but look for two hawkish JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

dissents from Hammack and Logan, with additional soft dissents (with

requests for discount rate hikes) from a broader set of reserve bank presidents.