US Treasury Market Daily

Research evidence excerpt

US Treasury Market Daily

Jay Barry AC (1-212) 834-4951 Harry Downie (1-212) 270-9500 Global Markets Strategy J P M O R G A Njohn.f.barry@jpmorgan.com harry.j.downie@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 27 July 2026

Jason Hunter AC (1-212) 270-0034 Amanda Berke (1-212) 834-5739

jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com amanda.berke@jpmorgan.com

non-auction days, while off-the-run volumes were roughly unchanged by the same

metric.

Figure 2: On-the-run trading volumes in the 7-year sector tend to spike on auction days

Daily Treasury volumes of 7-year on-the-run Treasuries versus 5- to 7-year off-the-runs on auction days versus other

days*; $bn

125 106 On-the-run

105 90 102 97

100 90 Off-the-run

24 19 18 17 23 19 25

Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Other days

* 6-month average

Source: TRACE, J.P. Morgan

Technical Analysis

The 5-year note yield rise has stalled in front of the 4.48% March-April equal swings

objective and 4.53% May-July triangle pattern measured move objective (Figure 3The5-yearnotebackupstaledinfrontofsuportsurounding4.50%butthelackofextremeoversoldconditionsandaclearpaternthatwouldsugestselerexhaustionsesthemarketretainanegativetrendbiaswhilecheaperthanthe4.25-4.25%resistancezone.).

Given the absence of extreme oversold conditions or anything in the price pattern that

would suggest seller exhaustion, the bearish trend bias remains in gear as long as the

market is trading cheaper than the 4.225-4.25% resistance zone. That area includes the

50-day moving average and early-July pattern breakdown. An extension to higher yields

would seek the next confluence of levels at the 4.62% Jan yield high and 4.65% Oct

2023 78.6% retracement. Alternatively, look to the 4.08-4.15% mid-May pattern

breakdown area and Mar 38.2% retracement as key medium-term resistance going