Cboe Global Markets: Model update

Research evidence excerpt

Cboe Global Markets: Model update

Kenneth B. Worthington, CFA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-6613 27 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

kenneth.b.worthington@jpmorgan.com

Cboe Global Markets (Underweight; Price Target: $288.00)

Investment Thesis

We rate Cboe Underweight. CBOE had successfully grown its SPX franchise with the

support of 0DTE contracts, but we think this catalyst has seasoned, and we think OI could

become a better indicator of future volume growth. Here, SPX OI growth has stalled and

VIX volumes have decelerated. We see downside risk, especially given tougher comps for

2026. We note that market share loss in multi-listed options could persist as new entrants

erode Cboe’s pricing power. With perhaps lower volatility, higher comps, and pricing

pressure from new entrants, we think there are better places to put money to work in our

exchange sub-sector. We value CBOE at 21x, a discount to the other exchanges on business

mix to include more competitive products. Our Dec 2026 price target is $288.

Valuation

Our revised Dec 2026 price target is $288. We arrive at our price target for Cboe by applying

a 21x multiple to our 2027 EPS estimate. We decrease our multiple by one turn (previously

22x) to reflect heightened competition from innovative products (i.e perps, prediction

markets). This is a discount to purest play peers, Miami International Exchange, which is

trading around ~24x FY27E Bloomberg consensus numbers.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Volumes Increase Led by Volatility

If trading velocity remains elevated as we saw in 2024, led by market volatility, we could

see volumes rise and potential upside in the stock. If volatility increases, VIX and SPX

trading velocity could meaningfully pick up.

Divestitures Pave Way for Better Growth