US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | AFTERNOON BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | AFTERNOON BRIEFING

o Our flows are VERY quiet. Would put activity levels in tech at about a 2/10. OVERALL HT

volumes are down 27% vs. 5D average. Info Tech is leading sell sector.nology to make

chips.

US MKT INTEL VIEW – we published below in the July 20th Morning Briefing

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – Our tactical bull call fell short last week, and we appear to have

been early to the buying the dip in both Momentum and Tech. That said, we maintain our

Tactically Bullish call flagging hyperscaler capex as a datapoint that could flip us to a more

bearish stance. If we see a capex cut, or to a lesser degree buyback reduction, that will roil

the markets pushing us toward a bearish view. At this stage that seems less likely than a

reiteration of forward guidance, helping to boost Tech / Momentum. 2 notes worth reading

come from Dubravko and Mislav, both flagging upside in Semis / Tech / Momentum Factor.

o DUBRAVKO: Hyperscalers vs. AI Hardware, AI Capex & Monetization, Momentum

Unwind, 2Q Earnings (full note is here)

o MISLAV: The maturing stage of AI/momentum unwind; Inflation rates rolling; Earnings

to offer a support (full note is here)

• NEW MONETIZATION MENU (JULY 20) – We make few changes WoW, still employing the

barbell of Tech and Cyclicals with some HC. On the Cyclicals trade, we still like this

expression and think that could be more inflows coming into Cyclicals ex-Semis especially

Financials. Healthcare remains a good diversifying play, with a relatively lower earnings

hurdle and M&A tailwind. For those looking to hedge Middle East risk, refiners remain our

favorite play within the sector. Derek Chollet sees the pattern of escalation / de-escalation

continuing so energy moves should be faded but an upward move in bond yields may prove