Polish Banks: 2Q26 Preview: Operating momentum remains as strong volumes cushion the rate drag, more one-offs this quarter

Research evidence excerpt

Polish Banks: 2Q26 Preview: Operating momentum remains as strong volumes cushion the rate drag, more one-offs this quarter

res are up 17% YTD

and are currently trading at 8.9x FY27E P/E and 1.6x P/TBV.

• PKO BP: We expect broadly stable earnings in 2Q26, with reported net profit of

~PLN2.5bn (ROTE ~19.0% vs. 18.6% in 1Q), broadly flat QoQ. Pre-provision profit

improves ~5% QoQ as the cost base normalizes on the absence of BFG charges (C/I down

to 30.4% from 34.4%), offsetting a softer revenue line. We model NII down ~1% QoQ,

reflecting marginal NIM compression of 4bp QoQ to 4.14% on the lagged pass-through

of prior-quarter WIBOR cuts, together with an assumed PLN170mn one-off hit related

to the free-credit-sanction case; healthy loan growth of ~3% QoQ (+13% YoY) provides

a partial offset. Fees should be broadly flat sequentially (+8% YoY) after a strong 1Q.

Asset quality remains benign, with cost of risk broadly stable at ~35bp, though we expect

the bank to book an additional ~PLN300mn forward-looking provision related to the

free-credit-sanction case. PKO remains our preferred name in the sector on the highest

sustainable mid-term ROTE; shares are up 32% YTD and trade at 10.1x FY27E P/E and

2.0x P/TBV.

• Model updates: Our model revisions mainly reflect fine-tuning going into 2Q26. Our net

income forecasts decrease by 2% on average in 2026, largely due to our upward revision

of CHF mortgage provision charge, while partially offset by increased fee income

forecasts. Our 2027E net income estimates remain broadly unchanged, and we now see

2028E net income for Polish banks 2% higher, supported by higher core revenues while

partially offset by CHF mortgage provision charge increase. Please see the following

pages for our full changes.