Smiths Group Early look at the FY26 Results & Model Update for Detection sale

Research evidence excerpt

Smiths Group Early look at the FY26 Results & Model Update for Detection sale

C A Z E N O V E Europe Equity Research

28 July 2026

Smiths Group Overweight

SMIN.L, SMIN LN

Early look at the FY26 Results & Model Update for Price (27 Jul 26):2,656p

Detection sale ▲Price Target (Dec-27):3,100p Prior (Jun-27):2,810p

We revisit our Smiths Group model heading into the FY26 results, having looked

at the latest read-across, data points, and spoken with the company. We update our European Capital Goods

model for the earlier-than-expect completion of the Detection sale (June 30th vs. H2 Chitrita C Sinha AC

guidance) which results in our Total Group Adj. EPS now only having 5 months (44-20) 7742-7176

impact from the business (and 2 months from Interconnect). Smiths also confirmed chitrita.sinha@jpmorgan.com

that it will be returning £1.5bn of proceeds from Detection solely through a Phil Buller

buyback rather than a combination of other mechanisms. While this earlier closing (44-20) 3493-9403

phil.buller@jpmorgan.com

does not materially change the underlying numbers, we expect consensus to now

Akash Gupta

be an apples-for-apples comparison, which is incrementally helpful for investors.

(44-20) 7742-7978

On organic sales growth, we now model 1.5% for FY26 (vs. ~2% guidance) and akash.z.gupta@jpmorgan.com

3.6% for FY27 as we assume a slower recovery in both O&G (prolonged ME Jeremy Caspar

conflict) and in Construction. As such, our adj. EBITA forecasts move 1%/2%/1% (44-20) 3493-5188

lower for FY26-FY28. We will assess the tactical set-up into the results nearer the jeremy.caspar@jpmorgan.com

print and once we have an updated consensus excl. Detection. We remain OW as J.P. Morgan Securities plc

we continue to see “FutureSmiths” as undervalued. Our price target increases to