LVMH F&LG returns to small growth; what now?

Research evidence excerpt

LVMH F&LG returns to small growth; what now?

e P&C division is being controlled to protect

long-term brand equity rather than chase short-term opportunities in a promotional

environment; 4) continued investment in brands, activations, and client servicing, while

at the same time the Group is aiming to deliver cost efficiencies through the use of AI in

operations; 5) H2 and Q3 comps look optically tougher but on a two-year stack, they are

similar to H1. This was driven by easier comps in 2024 (indeed something we called out

in our preview book here).

• Changes to estimates: Banking the H1 EBIT beat, and better fx assumptions in H2. we

have increased our forecasts by 1%. Within the mix, though, we lowered our F&LG

growth forecasts, to +1% in Q3 (from +3.5%) and to +2.5% in Q4 (from +4%), leading

to F&LG sales flat ex-FX in FY26.

• Peer read-across: We think this reporting season has so far showed very mixed trends

and very company/brand/category specific dynamics. On the categories, the LVMH print

echoes the strong trends we saw at Richemont (albeit with a different magnitude) and that

we will likely see also at Kering Jewellery today after market close. In contrast, for leather

goods we think the LVMH print highlights still challenging trends overall, with capped

pricing and price mix dynamics, leaving growth highly dependent on volumes and hence

on execution. This could potentially limit the ability of other leather goods stories to

accelerate from here (Hermes possibly more than Kering given the much tougher base of

comparison). Regionally, LVMH echoed the positive messages on the American,

Japanese and Korean consumers (again for hard luxury more than soft), albeit the Chinese

remained soft (flat on double digit negative comp) confirming strong polarisation in the