Stocktake: Australian Consumer Primer for 28 July 2026 – Westpac card spending, Viva Energy 2Q, WA refinery feasibility study, Treasury Wine Estates

Research evidence excerpt

Stocktake: Australian Consumer Primer for 28 July 2026 – Westpac card spending, Viva Energy 2Q, WA refinery feasibility study, Treasury Wine Estates

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

28 July 2026

Stocktake

Australian Consumer Primer for 28 July 2026 –

Westpac card spending, Viva Energy 2Q, WA refinery

feasibility study, Treasury Wine Estates

ACKey themes we are exploring today: AustralianBryan RaymondConsumer Sector

(61-2) 9003-6750

• Westpac household spending highlights solid retail spending to 18 July. bryan.raymond@jpmorgan.com

Westpac card transaction data points to a resilient consumer in July to date, with Christina Kim

(61-2) 9003-7082

the retail card index steady at 1.3% QoQ and 5.4% YoY, broadly in line with christina.kim@jpmorgan.com

May and June. Hospitality spending is leading food and non-food retail. An J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

interesting insight from the Westpac data this month is refund/credit activity,

which has picked up substantially over the past five years. In CY25 this

exceeded ~1% of spending and has doubled in value terms since 2022. This has

been driven by a mix shift towards online, with generous returns policies,

particularly in clothing and footwear. While still a small share of overall

transactions, the cost of returns for retailers is typically high and weighs on

margins. We consider the consumer to be relatively resilient overall, despite the

negative read through from Myer’s trading update yesterday.

• Viva Energy 2Q26 update and feasibility study into WA refinery. Viva’s

2Q26 GRM of US$20.10/bbl on intake of 9.5mbbl is below J.P. Morgan 2Q26

forecasts (US$22.66/bbl refining margin and 9.8mbbl) and moderated vs. the

April/May 2026 update (GRM of US$23.90/bbl on 6.5mmbl), implying a June