Latin America Economics & Strategy Daily: Brazil Candidates and Fiscal, Mexico Labor Market and Trade, Argentina IMF

Research evidence excerpt

Latin America Economics & Strategy Daily: Brazil Candidates and Fiscal, Mexico Labor Market and Trade, Argentina IMF

Viewpoint |

27 Jul 2026 10:20:35 ET │ 16 pages

Latin America Economics & Strategy

Daily

Brazil Candidates and Fiscal, Mexico Labor Market and Trade,

Argentina IMF Ernesto Revilla AC

+1-212-816-2621

ernesto.revilla@citi.com

CITI'S TAKE

Luis E Costa, CFA AC

Today we discuss developments in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina +44-20-7986-9757

luis.costa@citi.com

Regional Macro — Market bearishness seems to be pushing back after risk aversion

seemed to reach its highest point last Thursday, supported by the pause we have Esteban Tamayo AC

seen in the Middle East conflict. Markets are broadly pricing in a greater likelihood at esteban.tamayo@citi.com

this stage of some sort of negotiation. All this adds to the US administration AC Leonardo Portoimposition of new tariffs on imports, being so far the biggest reconstruction yet of

President Trump's tariffs that were previously struck down by the Supreme Court. leonardo.porto@citi.com

We continue to see a relatively constructive backdrop for relative value trades for AC Paulo Lopes

higher-carry LatAm currencies.

paulo.lopes@citi.com

LatAm Strategy Trades — We remain long BRL against EUR and AUD as the current AC Thais Ortega

macroeconomic backdrop still suggests resilience for high real-yielding EM (link).

thais.ortega@citi.comWe are holding on to our vol adjusted (structurally long USD) long MXN, BRL and TRY

vs CAD, CHF and THB, to capture high yielders carry (link). Felipe Juncal AC

felipe.juncal@citi.comBrazil — Inflation expectations continued de-anchoring. Parties' conventions

confirmed the candidacies of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and Ronaldo Caiado. Donato Guarino AC