Metal Matters: Bullish copper amid tighter China physical and supply pressure, $14,500/t 0-3 mth target maintained.

Research evidence excerpt

Metal Matters: Bullish copper amid tighter China physical and supply pressure, $14,500/t 0-3 mth target maintained.

Metal Matters

27 July 2026 Citi Research

Market still pricing some US copper tariff risk.

We don’t expect cathode tariff implementation

COMEX copper continues to trade at a premium to LME imply that the market

continues to price some probability of a US copper cathode import tariff (Fig. 12).

We reiterate our long-held view that we think a S232 tariff is unlikely and that this

premium will fade gradually over the coming months, with the US administration

incentivised to maintain strategic ambiguity by not announcing any decision

against tariff implementation. Meanwhile, Figure 13 shows that US copper imports

remain above pre-2025 norms, with recent bill of lading data indicating a renewed

pickup in import volumes. Material continues to flow into the US market despite

ongoing policy uncertainty.

Figure 12. Market still pricing US tariff risk. We don’t expect Figure 13. US copper imports tracking above pre-2025

a cathode tariff and believe this premium will fade in the typical US import levels

months ahead

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Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg, LME, CME Group Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg, US BOL

A focus on Chile copper investment and softening of aluminium S232 tariffs

suggest the US administration is exploring other avenues for securing critical

minerals supply beyond tariffs as a blunt tool. Chile is actively pursuing

investment in domestic smelting capacity (Bloomberg,22 July), with the US

International Development Finance Corporation engaging in these plans