Oil Monitor - Will IEA/OECD countries release more strategic stocks?

Research evidence excerpt

Oil Monitor - Will IEA/OECD countries release more strategic stocks?

Global Commodities - Wildcards 2H’26: 1970s Oil Shock Rerun, and Other

Wildcards

Commodities markets are in an era where geopolitical, climate and technological

shocks routinely overwhelm traditional supply-demand analysis. Rather than only

what is most likely, investors need to consider what is plausible, and what markets

are least prepared for. The frequency of major commodities market disruptions

appears to be rising. Events once considered "once -a-decade" now seem to

emerge every year, or even every six months. Since the early 2000s, markets have

navigated the Global Financial Crisis, the Arab Spring, the US shale revolution,

OPEC's strategic policy shifts; since 2020, wildcards include COVID-19, the

Russia-Ukraine conflict, trade wars, gold-positive macro concerns, weather-

driven agricultural disruptions, and repeated Middle East conflicts. In Feb’26, we,

as part of GSMG Research, published Wildcards: Tail Risks in an Increasingly

Fragile World – soon after that, the US-Iran conflict wildcard came about. Here, we

look at nine potential commodities wildcards for 2H 2026 and beyond.

Eric G Lee | Maximilian J Layton | Anthony Yuen | Maggie Xueting Lin | Arkady Gevorkyan

Global Asset Allocation - House Views July 2026 – From Penalty Kicks to Macro

Risks

Flagship

Since our last asset allocation, the Middle East conflict has escalated again, with

oil recovering much of the June losses. Rates have taken their cues from oil, while

equities and FX have remained more stable so far. We remain overweight equities,

as we still expect an eventual conflict resolution. But the size is reduced, as we

took profit on our Emerging Asia long in early July. We remain long the US, being