The Point for Latin America

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for Latin America

Point |

Monday, 27 July 2026

Top Call | Company | Industry | Global | Key Rating and Target Price Changes

Top Call

Mexico Economics Weekly - USMCA third round not a charm yet*

The USMCA review continues to progress, but absence of a breakthrough in the

third round supports our view that negotiations are likely to extend beyond this

year. The fourth round is scheduled for the first week of September. While our base

case remains that Mexico, US, and Canada ultimately reach an agreement to

extend the trade deal, we are less confident about the timing given the persistence

of contentious issues, including automotive rules of origin. The possibility of an

interim agreement before year-end could help reduce uncertainty, but details

remain limited. Prolonged negotiations are likely to continue weighing on business

sentiment and delaying recovery in private investment, suggesting a downside

bias to our 2% GDP growth forecast for 2027.

Julio Cesar Ruiz | Felipe Juncal

Company

MercadoLibre (MELI.O) - Taking the Market Pulse: Buy-side EBIT Expectations

Slightly Above CitiE, Below VA Consensus

We review the results of the last two investor polls released alongside our reports.

The first (May-31, see Marketing Feedback), pointed to a constructive stance on

the stock, with only ~10% of respondents seeing further downside risk at current

valuation, although the largest group (50%) preferred to wait for greater

visibility on margins before turning more positive, consistent with our marketing

feedback. The second poll, released with our 2Q26 Preview (Jul-21, see Good

Growth, but Multiple Pressure Points Persist), showed that 62% of respondents

expect 2Q26 EBIT above US$650mn, implying a buy-side estimate of