ITG Inc (ITG.O): FTTH + Data Center Tailwinds Driving Growth; Initiate Buy/High Risk

Research evidence excerpt

ITG Inc (ITG.O): FTTH + Data Center Tailwinds Driving Growth; Initiate Buy/High Risk

ITG Inc (ITG.O)

27 July 2026 Citi Research

FTTH + Data Center Tailwinds Driving

Growth; Initiate Buy/High Risk

Investment Thesis

In what we view as an overall robust fiber demand backdrop, we think ITG is well

positioned to deliver ~mid-teens% organic revenue growth through FY28

supported by its ~$2.9bn total backlog and ~$1.3bn NTM backlog (as of Dec. ’25).

Within its core markets, we expect Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) investments to

remain healthy through the end of the decade driven by growing bandwidth

demand from end-users, government stimulus programs (i.e., BEAD; see Figure 3),

and increasingly competitive telecom industry dynamics. Beyond ITG’s core

markets, we think the company’s expansion plan into adjacent markets could lead

to attractive near-term growth opportunities in data centers as well as utility-

related infrastructure longer-term (electric/gas/water). Importantly, we think an

underappreciated aspect of the data center infrastructure buildout (which we’ve

continued to view favorably; see here for more) is the fiber-related buildout

required, which we think could provide ITG a structural second growth pillar and

upside to its current ~$540mn of data center projects in backlog. Additionally,

ITG's proprietary FUSE360 platform has driven significant labor productivity gain in

its core businesses (reflected by the company’s 2025 adj. EBITDA margins being

~400bps above peer-average), significant cost synergies throughout ITG’s M&A

integration process and could lead to improved cash conversion over time.

That said, we acknowledge several risks to our outlook that contribute to our High

Risk rating. Most notably, ITG carries the highest customer concentration risk in