VW: The gap between ambition and execution

Research evidence excerpt

VW: The gap between ambition and execution

27 July 2026

Stephen Reitman

+44 20 7762 5535

European Automobiles & Components stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com

Volkswagen AG Steve Pereira Fernandes, CFA

+44 20 7676 7254

Rating steve.pereira-fernandes@bernsteinsg.com

Market-Perform Gali Salvatorelli Naraghi

Price Target +44 20 7676 6741

gali.salvatorelli-naraghi@bernsteinsg.com

VOW3.GR 100.00 EUR

Harry Martin, CFA

+44 20 7676 8965

harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com

VW released its 2Q26 results before market on 24 July. Considering the current gloom

Close Date 24 Jul 2026

surrounding the sector, the reiteration of the 4.0-5.5% group operating profit guidance

VOW3.GR Close Price (EUR) 71.16

corridor for FY26 (after a 4.2% margin in 2Q26) was positive. That said, there needs to be a

Price Target (EUR) 100.00

clear sequential improvement in the 2H26 margin after the cumulative 3.8% margin in 1H26

Upside/(Downside) 41%

for VW to even reach the bottom of its guidance corridor. VW points to new models from Audi

52-Week Range 109.15/69.20

improving the brand’s results and the impact of cost-cutting across the group. FY26 revenue

EDME 1,600.33

guidance was reduced from 0-3% growth to -3%-0%. VW management is trying to walk the

FYE Dec

tightrope of reassuring investors, especially with its unchanged margin guidance, while at the

Div Yield 7.4%

same time convincing its workforce that the house is on fire and that painful cuts to capacity,

Market Cap (EUR) (M) 36,230

requiring significant plant closures, are unavoidable. That is an almost impossible needle to

EV (EUR) (M) 34,896

thread and explains our MP rating.

Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

VW has already reduced capacity from 12m units in 2019 to 10m units today, and now Absolute (%) (31.3) (6.6) (32.0) (25.5)