Logista: Estimates & PT up on better 3Q26 results

Research evidence excerpt

Logista: Estimates & PT up on better 3Q26 results

Philippe Lorrain +33 1 42 14 75 16 philippe.lorrain@bernsteinsg.com 24 July 2026

DETAILS

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Barring any unforeseen dividend increase due to positive POI in the quarters to come, we believe that Logista’s dividend is not

likely to see a significant step-up before 2028-29 when the €60m PPA amortisation run-rate comes down to €8m annually, which

would mathematically lift reported earnings (and therefore the basis for dividends, according to Logista’s approach). Against this

backdrop (and with virtually no upside from current levels, in our view), we maintain our neutral stance at this stage.

CHANGES TO OUR ESTIMATES; BERNSTEIN ESTIMATES VS CONSENSUS

CHANGES TO OUR ESTIMATES EXCLUDING PROFIT ON INVENTORY (POI)

This morning, Logista published 3Q26 results. These were above our estimates by c.2% at the economic sales level and by c.9%

at the adjusted EBIT level, both excluding profit on inventory (POI).

The 3Q print showed sales growth improvement in Transport in 3Q and an acceleration in Pharmaceutical Distribution in Iberia

(despite ongoing tobacco volume declines across all regions, mostly in France, as usual). Following this strong performance, we

refresh our model, incorporating the 3Q26 results and, more noticeably, increasing our 4Q26 economic sales forecasts for the

Transport and Pharmaceutical Distribution businesses (both part of the Iberia segment). This spills over into our forecasts for FY27

and beyond. Meanwhile, we leave our tobacco volume and pricing forecast assumptions unchanged for FY27 and beyond. Overall,

excluding POI, we raise our group economic sales forecasts by slightly less than 1% for FY26 and by a bit more than 1% for FY27

and beyond.