Japan banks: Macroeconomy and domestic lending: BOJ survey: Signs of improvement in spreads of loan rates

Research evidence excerpt

Japan banks: Macroeconomy and domestic lending: BOJ survey: Signs of improvement in spreads of loan rates

Japan banks: Macroeconomy and domestic Global Markets Research

lending 22 July 2026

EQUITY: JAPAN BANKS

BOJ survey: Signs of improvement in spreads of Research Analysts

loan rates Japan banks Ken Takamiya - NSC

DI for spread of loan rates at historically high level / Tankan DI for change ken.takamiya@nomura.com

in interest rate on loans also rises +81 3 6703 1140

Investment implications

According to the BOJ's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices at

Large Japanese Banks (July 2026; published on 17 July), the DI for the spread of loan

rates is at its highest level since the global financial crisis triggered by Lehman's

bankruptcy (2008-09). Demand for loans in Japan is rising, and the possibility that

domestic banks will adopt a more cautious stance on pricing (rate-raising) is gradually

increasing, driven by management's focus on ROE and RORA, as well as regulatory

metrics such as rising loan-deposit ratios and declining net stable funding ratios (NSFR).

Signs of improvement in loan spreads on loans to large companies by the megabanks had

already started to appear, but we will be watching to see whether the recent tightening in

funding supply-demand conditions leads to an improvement in loan spreads in other

segments as well. At present, our forecasts do not factor in much of a boost from

improvements in loan spreads, but if this trend strengthens, it could provide an additional

positive factor for our bullish stance on bank stocks.

Recent lending survey and BOJ Tankan: Banks keen to hike interest rates

In the July survey (conducted between 9 June and 8 July), the DI for spreads of loan rates